The South-Eastern European countries continue to recover their economies after recession, but the start for this year and also that of 2015 is going to be modest. Despite a promising 2014, most of the countries within the area shall begin to feel the adverse effects of the Ukraine – Russia conflict.
The most recent economic report drafted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (BERD) foresees in South- Eastern Europe an economical increase of 2,2% on average in 2014 and of 2,4% in 2015. The predictions for Serbia had a negative review this summer– 1% for the end of 2014, after a 1,3% in January; the report refers in particular to the strong commercial and investment connections with Russia.
On the other hand, Romania`s economy continues to grow and BERD has positively reviewed the prediction, up to a 2,6% GDP increase in 2014, from the 2,4% estimated in the January report. For the next year, BERD foresees a 2,8% start.
The main engines of this economical increase shall be the exports and the growth of domestic demand. Yet, the high level of non-performing loans (over 20% of the total loans), the continuous intermediation made by the parent banks and the increased uncertainties in Ukraine could negatively influence the short-term economic growth.
Read more in The Art of Living printed edition